It's Post Time
RACHEL AND SUPER SAVER DEFEATED
During the past weekend, the 2009 Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra, and the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, both lost at Saratoga.
Without question, Rachel Alexandra had a great 2009 campaign. But has she been great in 2010? I would say not.
Rachel Alexandra has now lost three of five starts this year. In the Grade I Personal Ensign at 1 1/4 miles last Sunday, Rachel Alexandra was asked to go farther than 1 3/16 miles for the first time in her career.
Sent away as the 2-5 favorite, Rachel Alexandra set the early pace (:23.66, :47.73, 1:12.02) while being pushed by Life At Ten, the 9-5 second choice. Rachel Alexandra then put away Life At Ten to open a 3 1/2-length lead with a furlong to go.
But when Rachel Alexandra weakened late, she could not stave off Persistently, who pulled off a 21-1 upset while making her first start in a stakes race. So Zardana, Unrivaled Belle and now Persistently have defeated the 2009 Horse of the Year in 2010.
For whatever reason or reasons, other than perhaps Rachel Alexandra’s 10 1/2-length victory in the Grade II Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 12, we really haven’t seen the same sparkle from her this year as last year.
Rachel Alexandra was assigned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for her losing performance in the Personal Ensign. Persistently recorded a 95 Beyer. This was the lowest Beyer posted by Rachel Alexandra since she earned an 84 when second to Sara Louise in the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 1, 2008.
As for Super Saver, he certainly has been anything but super since winning this year’s Grade I Kentucky Derby. Since the Run for the Roses, Super Saver has finished eighth in the Grade I Preakness, fourth in the Grade I Haskell Invitational and 10th in last Saturday’s Grade I Travers.
Looking back at this year’s Kentucky Derby, I think these are the primary reasons why Super Saver won:
--He liked the sloppy track. When running on a sloppy track, Super Saver is two for two.
--The post positions. Super Saver started from post position No. 4. Two of his main foes, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy, were very unlucky in the post positions they drew. Lookin At Lucky had a horrible trip and finished sixth after breaking from post position No. 1. Sidney’s Candy, who had to be used early from post position No. 20, ended up 17th.
--Ice Box’s troubled trip. Ice Box, who finished second, might have won without encountering so much trouble, though like Super Saver, Ice Box has not distinguished himself since the Kentucky Derby. In his three subsequent starts, Ice Box has finished eighth in the Grade I Belmont, sixth in the Haskell and eighth in the Travers.
The last two Kentucky Derby winners have not won a single race afterward between them. While Super Saver is zero for three since his Derby triumph, Mine That Bird is zero for seven since taking the 2009 Derby.
With that in mind, I decided to take a look at the winners of the three Triple Crown races going back to 2001 in terms of how many victories they subsequently posted.
The Preakness clearly has been more productive in this regard than the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. The last 10 winners of the Preakness subsequently registered 29 wins compared to 16 for the Derby winners and only five for the Belmont winners.
SUBSEQUENT RECORD BY KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS
2001 Monarchos (0 for 3)
2002 War Emblem (2 for 5)
2003 Funny Cide (7 for 31)
2004 Smarty Jones (1 for 2)
2005 Giacomo (1 for 8)
2006 Barbaro (0 for 1)
2007 Street Sense (2 for 5)
2008 Big Brown (3 for 4)
2009 Mine That Bird (0 for 7)
2010 Super Saver (0 for 3)
Total: 16 for 69 (23.1%)
SUBSEQUENT RECORD BY PREAKNESS WINNERS
2001 Point Given (3 for 3)
2002 War Emblem (1 for 4)
2003 Funny Cide (6 for 30)
2004 Smarty Jones (0 for 1)
2005 Afleet Alex (1 for 1)
2006 Bernardini (3 for 4)
2007 Curlin (7 for 11)
2008 Big Brown (2 for 3)
2009 Rachel Alexandra (5 for 8)
2010 Lookin At Lucky (1 for 1)
Total: 29 for 66 (43.9%)
SUBEQUENT RECORD BY BELMONT WINNERS
2001 Point Given (2 for 2)
2002 Sarava (0 for 8)
2003 Empire Maker (0 for 1)
2004 Birdstone (1 for 2)
2005 Afleet Alex (0 for 0)
2006 Jazil (0 for 3)
2007 Rags to Riches (0 for 1)
2008 Da’ Tara (0 for 11)
2009 Summer Bird (2 for 4)
2010 Drosselmeyer (0 for 0)
Total: 5 for 29 (17.2%)
Not only has the Preakness produced by far the most subsequent wins in the last decade, its win percentage of 43.9 in subsequent starts is much higher than the 23.1 for the Kentucky Derby and 17.2 for the Belmont.
Earlier this year, Ed DeRosa of the Thoroughbred Times pointed out the Preakness has been more of a key race for end-of-season awards in recent years than either the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes.
The last nine Preakness winners prior to this year all were voted an Eclipse Award as either champion 3-year-old male or, in the case of Rachel Alexandra, champion 3-year-old filly.
During that same time, four Kentucky Derby winners were voted champion 3-year-old male, while four Belmont winners also subsequently were voted either champion 3-year-old male or, in the case of Rags to Riches, champion 3-year-old filly.
“I do not know why Preakness form holds out throughout the year better than the other two classics other than to point out what everyone else usually does -- that in recent years, the Preakness has been the most formful of the Triple Crown races…during that period,” DeRosa wrote.
This year, the favorite (Super Saver) did not win the Preakness, Kentucky Derby (Lookin At Lucky) or the Belmont (Ice Box).
As for the reason the Preakness has been the most formful of the Triple Crown races in recent years, I believe it’s because it is the most “normal” of the Triple Crown races by today’s standards.
The Kentucky Derby has such a big field, with 20 starters having become the norm, that it certainly is not what one would consider a normal race. And the Belmont, at 1 1/2 miles, a distance rarely run in America anymore, also definitely does not fit in the typical category these days. But the Preakness, with a smaller field than the Derby and at a distance shorter than the Derby and much shorter than the Belmont, more closely resembles the other important races for 3-year-olds -- such as the Haskell and Travers -- that have a significant impact in determining who gets the Eclipse Award as champion male or female 3-year-old.
Speaking of the Preakness, just last week MI Developments (MID), in conjunction with Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park, Golden Gate Fields, Pimlico Race Course and XpressBet, announced the introduction of the Preakness 5.5, a bonus program that could award an additional $5.5 million in bonuses to the 2011 Preakness winner. The bonus would be shared between the owner ($5 million) and trainer ($500,000).
“The purpose of this grand prize is to provide a spectacular event for the fans and to create a potential life-changing experience for the stakeholders of the racing industry,” said Frank Stonach, Chairman of MID. “These events represent the greatest hope for the renewal of the Thoroughbred racing business in America.”
To qualify for the Preakness 5.5 bonus at Gulfstream, a horse must win either the Grade III Holy Bull or Grade II Fountain of Youth and then go on to win the Grade I Florida Derby on April 3, 2011.
To qualify for the Preakness 5.5 bonus at Santa Anita, a horse must win either the Grade II Robert B. Lewis or Grade II San Felipe and then go on to win the Grade I Santa Anita Derby.
The winner of the Grade III El Camino Real Derby, scheduled for Feb. 12 at Golden Gate, also will qualify for the Preakness 5.5. bonus if he or she goes on to win the Santa Anita Derby.
Meanwhile, XpressBet will sponsor the XpressBet .55, a consolation prize of $550,000 ($500,000 to the owner and $50,000 to the trainer) to be awarded to the 2011 Preakness winner if that horse was not eligible for the Preakness 5.5 bonus but was a runner in one of the qualifying races and finished first, second or third in the Florida Derby or Santa Anita Derby.
The Preakness 5.5 bonus program also includes the AmTote Jockey Bonus worth $100,000 to the winning rider of the Preakness who also rode the winner of one of the qualifying races.
“We are delighted to expand our Preakness 5.5 to include the AmTote Jockey Bonus,” said Dennis Mills, CEO of MID. “The jockey is one of the most important members of the team and it is important for us to acknowledge their contribution to a horse’s overall success.”
These are the Preakness winners who in the past would have snagged the Preakness 5.5 bonus:
1958 Tim Tim
1978 Affirmed
1979 Spectacular Bid
1986 Snow Chief
1989 Sunday Silence
2001 Point Given
Tim Tam and Spectacular Bid won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Affirmed, Sunday Silence and Point Given won the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Snow Chief won the El Camino Real, Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby.
NO XPRESSBET COLUMNS DURING SEPTEMBER
I won’t be filing any XpressBet.com columns during the remainder of September. These weekly columns will return in October because I will be on vacation from HRTV during the remainder of the month. But, to say the least, this will be a working vacation. I have been hired by the California Horse Racing Board to work as a Steward at the Fairplex Park, which begins next Thursday.
I certainly am looking forward to my upcoming stint as a Steward at Fairplex, though I also am fully aware of how tough a job it is, having previously worked as a Steward in the state of Washington and in Idaho.
I also recently got my first experience as a Steward in California. On Aug. 13, Randy Winick, one of the Los Alamitos’ Stewards, was unable to work due to illness. I was asked to fill in for him that evening. My return to that track bought back some fond memories.
In the early 1980s, I covered the Orange County Fair meet at Los Alamitos each fall as a reporter/columnist for the Daily Racing Form. I was at Los Alamitos on the night of Oct. 25, 1982, when Pompeii Court won the six-furlong Orange Coast Handicap by a neck over Chinook Pass. The following year, Chinook Pass was voted an Eclipse Award as champion sprinter.
Years later, I drove a harness horse in a celebrity exhibition race at Los Alamitos. That certainly was an experience I will never forget.
I also was at Los Alamitos on June 17, 1994. That evening, I pinch-hit for Vince Bruun (who now is the publicity director at Emerald Downs) in calling the charts for Equibase. Why do I remember that particular date? While in the Los Alamitos press box on that occasion, I watched the televised police pursuit of O.J. Simpson in a white Ford Bronco on the San Diego freeway.
For my Aug. 13 visit to Los Alamitos this year, I joined Albert Christiansen and Ruben Moreno in the Stewards’ stand. I had hoped for a nice, quiet evening. But that did not turn out to be the case. It was a busy night, including a couple of disqualifications.
In the seventh race, the first division of the John Deere Juvenile California Regional Challenge Trials, Rare Bac finished sixth. We disqualified Rare Bac for veering in sharply leaving the gate and impeding Prize Wine. Rare Bac was placed ninth, behind Prize Wine. We felt Rare Bac had denied Prize Wine the opportunity for a better placing in this 350-yard race.
In the eighth race, the second division of the John Deere Juvenile California Regional Challenge Trials, Governor Rob finished fourth. We disqualified Governor Rob for veering out under a left-hand whip at the eighth pole to instigate a chain reaction. Governor came out and bumped Getit Together, who then bumped Abatoutofhell, who then bumped Runaway Corky. In our judgment, Governor Rob caused interference to three horses, or one-third of his opponents. Thus, we placed Governor Rob eighth, behind the lowest finisher of the three other horses involved in the chain reaction bumping incident, Abatoutofhell.
So much for a nice, quiet evening.
Randy Winick will be one of the two other Stewards I’ll be working with at Fairplex, along with Darrel McHargue. Voted a 1978 Eclipse Award as outstanding jockey, McHargue has been a Steward in California for 19 years. Winick, who trained 1993 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Brocco, has been a Steward in California since 2006. I have known these two gentlemen for 30 years. It will be an honor to work alongside them in the Stewards’ stand at Fairplex.
I first worked as a Steward at Yakima Meadows in 1979. Russell Lawler and Joe Wittman were the other two Stewards. Wittman was the official clocker and morning linemaker at Longacres. He was my mentor in terms of making a morning line. Working as a Steward with two classy and knowledgeable gentlemen like Lawler and Whittman was a wonderful and educational experience, though on my very first day, I learned that being a Steward isn’t as glamorous as many may think.
On my first day, the Board of Stewards received a letter from the head of the HBPA (Horsemen’s Benevolent & Protective Association). The letter alleged that the track was in violation of the state rule concerning manure and refuse disposal in the stable area.
It turned out that this would be one of the most pressing issues I was involved in during my first year as a Steward. I could not help but think to myself, “So this is what it means to be a Steward -- dealing with manure.”